Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Alaska SNAP payment error rate, FY 2025
What will Alaska's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2025, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?
current forecast · 80% CI15.6%
8.6%15.6%22.6%
history:FY 2023: 60.37%FY 2024: 24.66%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- 23.15%
- forecast
- 15.6% with 80% CI [8.6%, 22.6%]
- error
- +7.55% · absolute 7.55%
- cdf score
- CRPS 4.76 · PIT 0.91
- source
- fns SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025
USDA reported the FY2025 Alaska SNAP payment error rate was 23.15 percent.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025
Key drivers
- OBBBA ties future state cost share to error rates, raising state stakes
- State QC staffing and corrective action plans
- Caseload churn and eligibility policy volatility
- QC arbitration affecting first-print rates
Resolution
- source
- USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025
- resolved
- June 24, 2026
- actual
- 23.15%
- rule
- Resolves to Alaska's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2025 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2024 rates on June 30, 2025; the FY 2025 release is expected around mid-2026.
- Data point
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ak.fy2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
§
▸ illustrative step: fns.lookupauthored, not executed
§
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.